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Ka Kin Lam and Bo Wang
A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. An accurate model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and resource bud...
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Ufuk Beyaztas and Hanlin Shang
We propose a functional time series method to obtain accurate multi-step-ahead forecasts for age-specific mortality rates. The dynamic functional principal component analysis method is used to decompose the mortality curves into dynamic functional princi...
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Thabang Mathonsi and Terence L. van Zyl
Hybrid methods have been shown to outperform pure statistical and pure deep learning methods at forecasting tasks and quantifying the associated uncertainty with those forecasts (prediction intervals). One example is Exponential Smoothing Recurrent Neura...
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Piotr Sliwka and Leslaw Socha
The proposed new methods of modelling and forecasting mortality rates are used, among others, to estimate life expectancy depending on the type of death as a fundamental life insurance factor.
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Yuan Chen and Abdul Q. M. Khaliq
The Lee?Carter model could be considered as one of the most important mortality prediction models among stochastic models in the field of mortality. With the recent developments of machine learning and deep learning, many studies have applied deep learni...
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Rahul Pathak and Daniel Williams
The sudden onset of the COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges for forecasting professionals worldwide. This article examines the early forecasts of COVID-19 transmission, using the context of the United States, one of the early epicenters of the...
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Snorre Jallbjørn and Søren Fiig Jarner
The main purpose of coherent mortality models is to produce plausible, joint forecasts for related populations avoiding, e.g., crossing or diverging mortality trajectories; however, the coherence assumption is very restrictive and it enforces trends that...
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Samar A. Shilbayeh, Abdullah Abonamah and Ahmad A. Masri
Prediction models of coronavirus disease utilizing machine learning algorithms range from forecasting future suspect cases, predicting mortality rates, to building a pattern for country-specific pandemic end date. To predict the future suspect infection ...
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Zarifa Jabrayilova
Pág. 18 - 25
The scientific methodological and functional principles of the intelligent decision support system for the management of demographic situation based on predictions are developed. Predictions (prognosis) of the changes in the number of the population, its...
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