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Roberto Vettor, Giovanni Bergamini and C. Guedes Soares
This work aims at defining in a probabilistic manner objectives and constraints typically considered in route optimization systems. Information about weather-related uncertainties is introduced by adopting ensemble forecast results. Classical reliability...
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Martin Lindner, Judith Rosenow, Thomas Zeh and Hartmut Fricke
Today, each flight is filed as a static route not later than one hour before departure. From there on, changes of the lateral route initiated by the pilot are only possible with air traffic control clearance and in the minority. Thus, the initially optim...
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Yuxiu Liu, Xing Yuan, Yang Jiao, Peng Ji, Chaoqun Li and Xindai An
Integrating numerical weather forecasts that provide ensemble precipitation forecasts, land surface hydrological modeling that resolves surface and subsurface hydrological processes, and artificial intelligence techniques that correct the forecast bias, ...
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Xiaoyu Gao, Shanhong Gao and Yue Yang
The data assimilation method to improve the sea fog forecast over the Yellow Sea is usually three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR), whereas ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has not yet been applied to this weather phenomenon. In this paper, two ...
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S. C. KAR,G. R. IYENGAR,K. BOHRA
For preparing medium range weather forecasts, two global coarse resolution models at different resolutions were used at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India. In order to improve the forecasting skill, an ensemble predi...
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José Luis da Silva Pinho,António Pereira,Rolando Faria
Pág. 69 - 82
Os sistemas de previsão e alerta utilizados na gestão de recursos hídricos e operação de sistemas de drenagem tiveram desenvolvimentos significativos nos últimos anos. Esses desenvolvimentos resultaram da disponibilidade de informações meteorológicas em ...
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José Luis da Silva Pinho,António Pereira,Rolando Faria
Pág. 69 - 82
Os sistemas de previsão e alerta utilizados na gestão de recursos hídricos e operação de sistemas de drenagem tiveram desenvolvimentos significativos nos últimos anos. Esses desenvolvimentos resultaram da disponibilidade de informações meteorológicas em ...
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Juliana Mendes and Rodrigo Maia
This paper describes the process of analysis and verification of ensemble inflow forecasts to the multi-purpose reservoir of Aguieira, located in the Mondego River, in the center of Portugal. This process was performed to select and validate the referenc...
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Min Roh, Hyung-Suk Kim, Pil-Hun Chang and Sang-Myeong Oh
A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administr...
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Taereem Kim, Ju-Young Shin, Hanbeen Kim, Sunghun Kim and Jun-Haeng Heo
Climate variability is strongly influencing hydrological processes under complex weather conditions, and it should be considered to forecast reservoir inflow for efficient dam operation strategies. Large-scale climate indices can provide potential inform...
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Jeffrey D. Auger, Sean D. Birkel, Kirk A. Maasch, Paul A. Mayewski and Keah C. Schuenemann
We have produced a global ensemble mean of the four third-generation climate reanalysis models for the years 1981–2010. The reanalysis system models used in this study are National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System...
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Jessica M. McDonald, Alan F. Srock and Joseph J. Charney
In this paper, we describe and analyze a climatology of the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW), with the goal of providing fire-weather forecasters with information about the daily and seasonal variability of the index. The 30-year climatology (1981–2010) w...
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Yuiko Ichikawa and Masaru Inatsu
This study proposes an alternative method to estimate the potential predictability without assuming the perfect model. A theoretical consideration relates a maximum possible value of the initial-value error to the covariance between analysis and bias-cor...
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Shibo Gao and Danlian Huang
A hybrid ensemble adjustment Kalman filter?three-dimensional ensemble?variational (EAKF-En3DVar) system is developed to assimilate conventional and radar data, and is applied to a convective case in Colorado and Kansas, USA. The system is based on the fr...
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Bo Qu, Xingnan Zhang, Florian Pappenberger, Tao Zhang, Yuanhao Fang
Pág. 1 - 13
Statistical post-processing for multi-model grand ensemble (GE) hydrologic predictions is necessary, in order to achieve more accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts. This paper presents a case study which applies Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to ...
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Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Bowman, Keith J. Roberts, M. Hamish Bowman, Charles N. Flagg, Jian Kuang, Yonghui Weng, Erin B. Munsell and Fuqing Zhang
This paper describes storm surge simulations made for Sandy (2012) for the Metropolitan New York (NYC) area using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model forced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The atmospheric forecast uncertainty was...
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S. K. ROY BHOWMIK,V. R. DURAY
In the present study, a method is proposed for the ensemble forecasting of rainfall over the Indian monsoon region based on daily outputs of four operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the short-range time scale (up to 48 hours). Th...
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Mykhailo Lohachov, Ryoji Korei, Kazuo Oki, Koshi Yoshida, Issaku Azechi, Salem Ibrahim Salem and Nobuyuki Utsumi
This article investigates approaches for broccoli harvest time prediction through the application of various machine learning models. This study?s experiment is conducted on a commercial farm in Ecuador, and it integrates in situ weather and broccoli gro...
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Shumpei Kamo, Judith Rosenow, Hartmut Fricke and Manuel Soler
Aircraft trajectory planning is affected by various uncertainties. Among them, those in weather prediction have a large impact on the aircraft dynamics. Trajectory planning that assumes a deterministic weather scenario can cause significant performance d...
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Jingyun Zhang, Lingyu Xu and Baogang Jin
The multi-model ensemble (MME) forecast for meteorological elements has been proved many times to be more skillful than the single model. It improves the forecast quality by integrating multiple sets of numerical forecast results with different spatial-t...
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