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Binquan Li, Zhongmin Liang, Jianyun Zhang, Xueqing Chen, Xiaolei Jiang, Jun Wang and Yiming Hu
Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting...
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Binquan Li, Zhongmin Liang, Jianyun Zhang, Xueqing Chen, Xiaolei Jiang, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu
Pág. 1 - 12
Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting...
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Erich J. Plate and Khurram M. Shahzad
This paper demonstrates, by means of a systematic uncertainty analysis, that the use of outputs from more than one model can significantly improve conditional forecasts of discharges or water stages, provided the models are structurally different. Discha...
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Yongqi Liu, Guibing Hou, Baohua Wang, Yang Xu, Rui Tian, Tao Wang and Hui Qin
Flood control operation of cascade reservoirs is an important technology to reduce flood disasters and increase economic benefits. Flood forecast information can help reservoir managers make better use of flood resources and reduce flood risks. In this p...
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Svetlana S. Uvarova, Svetlana V. Belyaeva, Alexandr K. Orlov and Vadim S. Kankhva
Most large construction projects face the problem of cost overruns and failures to meet deadlines mainly due to changes in the cost of building materials. A lot of studies proved the high importance of the cost of building materials for the project budge...
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Konstantine P. Georgakakos
The ability to effectively transfer results of research in hydrometeorology to operational field applications is met with several challenges. This article exemplifies cooperative implementation that explicitly considers the flow of uncertainty from data ...
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Feifei Yang, Diego Cerrai and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Weather-related power outages affect millions of utility customers every year. Predicting storm outages with lead times of up to five days could help utilities to allocate crews and resources and devise cost-effective restoration plans that meet the stri...
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Hana Sevcikova, Brice Nichols
Pág. 805 - 820
Using an integrated land use and travel model system implemented for the Puget Sound region in Washington state, a Bayesian Melding technique is applied to represent variations in land use outcomes, and is propagated into travel choices across a multi-ye...
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Ashkan Zarnani, Soheila Karimi and Petr Musilek
Information about forecast uncertainty is vital for optimal decision making in many domains that use weather forecasts. However, it is not available in the immediate output of deterministic numerical weather prediction systems. In this paper, we investig...
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Saskia Gindraux and Daniel Farinotti
Runoff predictions are affected by several uncertainties. Among the most important ones is the uncertainty in meteorological forcing. We investigated the skill propagation of meteorological to runoff forecasts in an idealized experiment using synthetic d...
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Bin Xu, Ping-An Zhong, Qiyou Huang, Jianqun Wang, Zhongbo Yu and Jianyun Zhang
Hedging rules for water supply reservoir operations provide guidelines for balancing the consequences of competing water allocations. When inflow forecast uncertainty is addressed, hedging acts as insurances for offsetting the negative influence of water...
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Bin Xu, Ping-An Zhong, Qiyou Huang, Jianqun Wang, Zhongbo Yu, Jianyun Zhang
Pág. 1 - 17
Hedging rules for water supply reservoir operations provide guidelines for balancing the consequences of competing water allocations. When inflow forecast uncertainty is addressed, hedging acts as insurances for offsetting the negative influence of water...
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Hana Sevcikova, Mark Simonson, Michael Jensen
Uncertainty in land use and transportation modeling has received increasing attention in the past few years. However, methods for quantifying uncertainty in such models are usually developed in an academic environment and in most cases do not reach users...
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Mihaela Bratu
Pág. 230 - 236
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Gökçen Uysal, Rodolfo Alvarado-Montero, Dirk Schwanenberg and Aynur Sensoy
Optimal control of reservoirs is a challenging task due to conflicting objectives, complex system structure, and uncertainties in the system. Real time control decisions suffer from streamflow forecast uncertainty. This study aims to use Probabilistic St...
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Gökçen Uysal, Rodolfo Alvarado-Montero, Dirk Schwanenberg and Aynur Sensoy
Optimal control of reservoirs is a challenging task due to conflicting objectives, complex system structure, and uncertainties in the system. Real time control decisions suffer from streamflow forecast uncertainty. This study aims to use Probabilistic St...
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Daniel Kubek, Pawel Wiecek, Konrad Chwastek
Pág. 172 - 179
An impossibility to foresee in advance the accurate traffic parameters in face of dynamism phenomena in complex transportation system is a one of the major source of uncertainty. The paper presents an approach to robust optimization of logistics vehicle ...
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J. Wright, G. Landwehr, E. Chartan
The value associated with an improved variable renewable energy (VRE) forecast has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels as well as the range of this value becoming wider...
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Jaehee Lee, Jinyeong Lee, Young-Min Wi and Sung-Kwan Joo
Occasionally, wind curtailments may be required to avoid an oversupply when wind power, together with the minimum conventional generation, exceed load. By curtailing wind power, the forecast uncertainty and short-term variations in wind power can be miti...
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Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer and Irina Gladkova
Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in th...
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