Resumen
The impact of climate change and Baltic Sea level rise on groundwater resources in a shallow, unconfined, low-lying coastal aquifer in Hanko, southern Finland, was assessed using the UZF1 model package coupled with the three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW to simulate flow from the unsaturated zone through the aquifer. The snow and PET models were used to calculate the surface water availability for infiltration from the precipitation data used in UZF1. Infiltration rate, flow in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge were then simulated using UZF1. The simulation data from climate and sea level rise scenarios were compared with present data. The results indicated changes in recharge pattern during 2071?2100, with recharge occurring earlier in winter and early spring. The seasonal impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge were more significant, with surface overflow resulting in flooding during winter and early spring and drought during summer. Rising sea level would cause some parts of the aquifer to be under sea level, compromising groundwater quality due to intrusion of sea water. This, together with increased groundwater recharge, would raise groundwater levels and consequently contribute more surface leakage and potential flooding in the low-lying aquifer.