Resumen
This study analyzes the potential impacts of motorcycle demand management and its contribution to the transportation market in Yangon, Myanmar, where motorcycles have been banned since 2003. A vehicle ownership model with travel demand models of modal choice, destination choice, and trip frequency is estimated using a dataset comprising 8,289 households and 24,373 trips in Yangon, compiled by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in 2013. Next, a traffic demand forecast system is developed in which a traffic assignment model is integrated with a vehicle ownership model and travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of the motorcycle ban. Then, the expected impacts of the motorcycle ban are estimated by comparing multiple scenarios for 2013 and 2035. The results show that the ban could reduce traffic volume and vehicle kilometers traveled by approximately 18.0% and 26.9% in 2013, but only 4.5% and 6.0% in 2035. In other words, the ban significantly contributes to the mitigation of the current urban transportation problems; however, it would promote car ownership and the substitution of motorcycles in line with income growth, wiping out the effects of reduced motorcycle trips in the future. These findings suggest that developing cities should consider the long-term dynamics of motorcycle demand management.