Resumen
Risk management is a subject that, crisis after crisis, assumes a relevant role in the environment of non-?nancial companies. Despite the growing importance of the subject, debate about the introduction of a model capable of evaluating the risks to which companies are exposed is still in its infancy. Considering this gap and the importance of the theme for companies, this study proposes constructing an empirical cash ?ow at risk model and applying it to companies in the steel sector in Brazil. We have analyzed two methods of risk factors identi?cation: sector components and company-level components. After such identi?cation, simulations of risk factors future behavior were made using either the historical distribution of each risk factors and residuals of each risk factor time-series model. In addition, a third (and naïive) method was tested: bootstrap of each component of the cash?ow.